Victoria's 50th Premier, Ben Carroll, started his first day as Premier with a press conference at Kmart, leaning into his narrative of a working-class childhood (his first job was at Kmart).

However, much like the Opposition Leader, Jess Wilson, the Premier's political skills weren't refined restocking Hot Wheels, but in Ministerial offices as a staffer.

Factional Politics

Of the 15 Labor MPs who did not vote for Ben Carroll in the Caucus meeting that elected him Leader, the more high-profile all have close connections to former Premier Dan Andrews and his legacy.

Any chance of success for Premier Carroll on 28 November will be contingent on his ability to thread the needle of distancing himself from Daniel Andrews (and Jacinta Allan) while not throwing himself or any of his Cabinet colleagues under the bus.

What does this look like?

• A Royal Commission on the Big Build - This needs to happen, but it will only be successful if the Commissioner is seen as non-partisan and the Terms of Reference allow for deep investigation across all former Ministers, their offices, the bureaucracy, unions and contractors. It also needs to wedge the Opposition to remove or diminish it as an issue ahead of the election. It is a very politically risky process for the new Premier.
• Reputation protection - Political stakeholders concerned about the impact of Premier Carroll's Royal Commission and integrity push will seek to use the media to defend themselves, and also to create distractions for the Government.
• Political Staff - Anyone working for a Minister whose portfolio changes as a result of the change of leader can access a redundancy. Staff retention and attraction is not an often-discussed element of governing, but, this close to an election, the Premier will want as many experienced staff as possible to stay around.

Stakeholder Politics

A famous saying out of previous Labor Governments was that "stakeholders don't vote". This is true, but they do employ Victorians, pay taxes and lead the economy, and, in the current political environment, can influence voters.

If the plan to pay back the debt is to grow the economic pie, businesses need to grow. With such limited time until the election, real change will be hard, so Premier Carroll's relationship with the business community will be as much about signals as it will be about actions.

Peak industry groups will be looking for changes to the Work from Home legislation introduced by Premier Allan, and reductions in property-based taxes.

Many business leaders are likely to gain confidence from a Premier who is interested in hearing their ideas and supporting proposals to grow the state.

Election Politics

Labor has decided that to achieve a record fourth term, it needs to distance itself from its previous three.

It will aim to shift Victorians from thinking about what they have done to what they are going to do.

Meanwhile, the Opposition will focus on integrity, waste and mismanagement, and One Nation Victoria says it “is dedicated to advancing common sense policies that support Australian families, protect our freedoms, and strengthen our nation”.

Partner at Fleetwood Strategy, Andrew Laidlaw, has worked on multiple election campaigns. He says:

"By promising to differentiate himself from his predecessor and hold a Royal Commission, the new Premier has conceded the state needs to change direction. So, the election is now a contest over which party can credibly deliver that change. For example, if everyone is promising a Royal Commission, the question becomes who believes most strongly in acting on what it finds. With parties and local candidates, not leaders, on the ballot paper, it will come down to who has the team with the conviction to see through the change voters need."

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