The Score

Executive Summary

Reputation management and advocacy in Australia is increasingly complex with an evolving media landscape, a fast- changing and fragmented policy environment, and increasing geopolitical challenges.

There is a never-ending stream of publicly available economic, social and political insights. The York Park Group PulseCheck brings together high quality, national data to provide a single reference point of the broader environment in which our clients seek to build and manage their reputation, and advocate for policy outcomes.

As Australians began their summer holidays, they did so with positivity. The Q4 PulseCheck shows the nation on track to end the year in a better frame than it started. That moment of calm now seems to be a lifetime ago. The Bondi Beach terrorism attack occurred in the final days of the Q4 data, with its impact felt across the community and affecting government and politics. As Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, said of the world order in January, we are now in “a period of great rupture”. Australia’s social cohesion is at risk and our political consensus, fraying for the past decade, is now standing entirely exposed.

In 2026, businesses and organisations navigating the public arena do so in an environment of deep precariousness. Politics - domestic and global - is more charged than ever, making corporate public positioning even harder when things go right or wrong. Combined with upticks in inflation released in January and expectations of RBA rate rises in February, the year ahead could mark a moment of fracturing in Australia.

Consumers and Business Diverge - Q4 2025

The Pulse has recorded two consecutive positive quarters for the first time since August 2022, rising to +5 in Q4 2025, up from +4 in Q3 2025.

A divergence has emerged between increasingly confident consumers and more cautious businesses. Consumer sentiment is now at its highest level since December 2021, yet business confidence and conditions have fallen below their long run averages for the first time in six months.

This, combined with an uptick in inflation, created an uncertain outlook despite improved trading and profitability in December. Although the national mood fell slightly – continuing its decline from a post-election high – the outlook for the country stayed constant, suggesting a belief that consumers are yet to link increased inflation with potential interest rate rises.

The Federal Coalition polled at its lowest-ever level amid continued instability; at a state level, the Liberal Party in Victoria, NSW and South Australia all replaced their leaders, electing relatively new, Gen-X and Millennial female MPs.

The Albanese Government appeared to gain momentum after a successful meeting with US President Trump which secured a critical minerals strategic agreement. This was further buoyed by the world-first under 16s social media ban. However, the travel expenses scandal dominated news ahead of the Bondi terrorist attack on December 14.

Outlook for Q1-2026

The impact of the Bondi terrorist attack will be profound and long-lasting. Social cohesion is difficult to define, let alone measure.

The continued decline in the national mood and outlook will last throughout 2026. This will intensify as submissions to the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion are published and hearings commence.

Meanwhile, the RBA expects inflation to remain above three per cent for ‘much of next year’ – the next RBA decision in February will be key, as it will determine consumer spending and business investment. Any interest rate rise will define the Federal Government’s economic agenda, increasing calls for reform.

Sentiment from the World Economic Forum at Davos, specifically from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, highlights the changing business confidence and conditions, as investors seek to understand what, if any, shifts will result from nations reducing their trust in, and reliance on, America.

The interplay of social division, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical instability will shape both public sentiment and investment decisions. The response of the Federal and State Governments will determine how this impacts The Pulse of Australia.

Q1 2026 Considerations - Looking Ahead

Reputation: Research shows 89 per cent of Australians believe they can spot an AI deepfake, yet only 42 per cent are able to when tested. Are we prepared for the risk this presents to our reputation?  

Positioning: Are we prepared for a year dominated by a broader and challenging public debate surrounding antisemitism and social cohesion?

Messaging: How do you balance individual opinions against a broader organisation-wide narrative?

History: 2019 to 2026

Stepping back and viewing The Pulse over time illustrates the recent volatility. In 2025, following a post-election high, The Pulse settled at above its long-term trend. Recent events may see a return to this volatility.

PulseCheck Methodology

York Park Group wanted PulseCheck to be an objective and subjective measurement. In developing the methodology, we considered:

• How do voters in the community feel generally against their actions?
• What are business perceptions against the decisions they make?
• How to answer these questions with data that already exists?

The Pulse is measured on a scale between -50 and +50, with 0 set as a neutral score, indicating that, socially, economically and politically, Australia is neither positive nor negative. The majority of the data sets used date back to 2019. This provides important context of where we are sitting compared to the black swan event of the pandemic.

For context, a record low -47.8 was recorded in April 2020, when business conditions and confidence were at -50 and -34 respectively as the scale of the pandemic became clear. Conversely, and coincidently exactly a year later, a record high of +30.4 is recorded, when the vaccine rollout was in full swing, with record high consumer sentiment and positive business confidence and conditions of 21 and 32 respectively.

Formula

The Pulse is formulated as a weighted sum of normalised scores assigned to each indicator. Data scientists at Klara have created linear spline functions – line segments joined at specified points – to normalise the indicators.

For each indicator, a total of 11 scores between -50 and 50 have been assigned to a representative sample of indicator’s values. The result is an adaptable but consistent and objective methodology that normalises the various indicators into a unified scale.

Once normalised, each indicator is given a weighting that determines the relative influence of the indicators on the overall Pulse score. The weightings were selected to achieve a balance between more objective measures that reflect actual spending or economic conditions (e.g. ABS data and NAB business conditions) and more subjective measures that reflect consumer sentiment, business confidence, and political satisfaction. The weightings for each source are set out below.

Consistent Updates

Together, York Park Group and Klara have built PulseCheck to capture changes in Australia’s economic, social and political climate.

PulseCheck offers a data-driven lens through which organisations can proactively manage their reputation in a dynamic and often unpredictable environment. As new sources emerge, PulseCheck will continue to refine its approach – remaining a reliable, transparent, and relevant guide for decision-making in an increasingly complex world.