Overview

The Federal ALP is on track to win a super majority in the lower house, gain an additional three seats in the Senate and Prime Minister Albanese has entered the history books as the first Prime Minister to increase his majority after a first term. The Liberal Party saw its metropolitan vote decimated as it failed to win the suburban voters, and their dismal election campaign culminated in Opposition Leader Peter Dutton losing his own seat.

While some elements might have been predicted in isolation, the combination of dominant Labor, increased national Greens vote in the Senate and the decimation of the Liberal Party was not expected, surprising senior members of all political parties.

There has been thorough analysis in the media, including accurate accounts of internal discussions, and we have shared links to some interesting articles at the end of this piece.

Looking ahead, what can we expect from the Albanese Government in the 48^th parliament? We know that Medicare funding boosts and lowering PBS costs were a key pillar of the campaign, as was abolishing $16 billion of student debt. Beyond that, there will be a continued push for policies that failed in the 47^th Parliament, be that the Environmental Protection Agency or the tax on unrealised gains in super accounts over $3 million.

The House of Representatives majority gives Labor a clear mandate, but such an agenda cannot be enacted without the Upper House. This will be key and with vote counting still underway, Labor is expected to increase its Senate majority by three to 28. This creates a historically left leaning Senate when combined with the 11 Greens Senators and more moderate voices such as David Pocock and Jaquie Lambie.

Returning to the Coalition, their result is a nightmare with the party potentially facing six years in Opposition, such is the scale of the loss. The Nationals now hold significantly more power in the Coalition party room which will translate to greater Shadow Ministries, it will be intriguing if there is further influence beyond this.

The Result (as of May 5, 2025)

Labor is estimated to have secured a two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent, with a primary vote of 34.8 per cent. This is based on the latest figures where 77 per cent of the vote has been counted.

Metro - Regional Split

The Liberal Party is facing a very real prospect of holding fewer seats than it’s ‘smaller’ partner the Nationals in the states of Victoria and NSW. This along with having no Liberal MP in Adelaide, emphasises the loss of support for the party in urban areas. Of the 50 highest-income electorates in the country, according to census data, the Liberals now hold only five.

Regional Australia could face greater challenges under the re-elected Albanese Government. The Labor caucus is dominated by MPs who represent urban and peri-urban communities. Regional MPs are based in higher population centres. Rural voices continue to be represented by the National Party, a few independents and a declining number of Liberal members.

With the National Party Leader David Littleproud already stating his continued support of nuclear (as one example) there is a risk that rural voices will be further cut out form the national debate, with their lower population and less political relevance in a large majority Parliament. However, with future large scale renewable energy generation being almost exclusively regionally based and food security being even more important in the geopolitical context, rural and regional Australia has never been more important.

Rural Australia needs to build relevance and influence within the parameters voters across the country created for the 48^th Parliament.

Polling

Research should always inform a strategy, not lead it. In the case of public polling, Redbridge was the closest poll from a 2PP perspective and YouGov projected a Labor victory with 84 seats.

The analysis revealing how polling errors eventuate has given the public an insight into how the sausage is made, with Freshwater Strategy Director Mike Turner writing in the AFR that their incorrect result was in part linked to their overestimation of Labor supporters who voted No in the Voice referendum switching to the Coalition.

The massive preference flows in many seats, as well as the strong swings to Labor in Queensland and Tasmania have highlighted the continued challenge of public polling. In the aftermath, research will be commissioned looking at why voters voted the way they did, and if their priorities align with your advocacy needs.

The Greens

It has been a disappointing election for the Greens, whom despite largely maintaining strong support, with only a 0.4% swing against them, have failed to pick up seats. The party has lost Griffith and Brisbane to Labor whilst Party Leader Adam Bandt is facing a battle to retain Melbourne with counting continuing. They remain close in Wills (VIC) and are hoping to retain Ryan in Brisbane but the party has fallen short of the nine-seat goal Mr Bandt declared previously. Early analysis suggests the collapse in the Liberal vote hurt them. Conversely, the party received a strong national vote in the Senate, and looks set to take a total of 11 Senate seats, creating a strong voting block to influence government policy and legislation.

The Independents

One of the remarkable aspects of the campaign has been the ability of the Teals and other Independent MPs to maintain their support and win re-election. This includes Allegra Spender, Kate Chaney, Sophie Scamps and Zali Steggall. Currently Zoe Daniel in Goldstein (VIC) looks to be the only Teal at risk, where she is currently leading former Member Tim Wilson by just 95 votes with 79.2 per cent of the count completed. Meanwhile in Bradfield (NSW) Nicolette Boele leads the Liberal candidate by 905 votes, with 81.2 per cent of the count.

The independent movement is now ensconced in Australian politics. How they leverage their influence and position in a solid majority government will be interesting to watch, but as proven effective and articulate communicators, they will still have a voice on the national stage.

Seat Analysis (as of morning of 5 May, 2025)

Seats Confirmed or Projected to Changed Hands

Seats too Close to Call

Commentary

“No, the voters aren’t always right. This time they were wrong, and this gutless and incoherent Coalition should be ashamed.” - Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun

“The story of the 2025 election was about a shambolic Coalition campaign. And, on election night, the shock and story were focused on the collapse of the Coalition vote and of the demise of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and so many of his lieutenants.” - Laura Tingle, ABC

“Australia has changed. The Coalition’s existential problem is that, as a political party, it has failed to change with it.” – Simon Benson, The Australian

“Liberals followed Dutton into unfamiliar territory. And he led them off a cliff.” - Bernard Keane, Crikey

“The party that chose nuclear energy as its policy has exploded in a nuclear bomb set on them by the voters tonight.” - Mark Riley, Seven Network

Response from World Leaders

“I congratulated him on a convincing election victory and thanked him for keeping support for Ukraine in focus. Ukraine sincerely values Australia's unwavering support and its principled stance on ending Russia's war and securing a dignified and lasting peace. We look forward to further strengthening our productive partnership” - President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy

“Congratulations to Anthony Albanese on your election win. The UK and Australia are as close as ever – which goes to show that long-distance friendships can be the strongest… Our collaboration on defence, especially the AUKUS programme will continue to grow, and as fellow steadfast supporters of Ukraine, we will continue to stand together against Putin’s illegal war for as long as it takes” – Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer

“Congratulations [Prime Minister Anthony Albanese] on your resounding victory and re-election as Prime Minister of Australia! This emphatic mandate indicates the enduring faith of the Australian people in your leadership. I look forward to working together to further deepen the India-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and advance our shared vision for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.” Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi

“China stands ready to work with the new Australian government led by Prime Minister Albanese and, under the fundamental guidance provided by the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries, continue advancing a more mature, stable, and productive comprehensive strategic partnership.” – Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson

“Albanese I'm very friendly with ... I have no idea who the other person is that ran against him, you know, we [Albanese and I] have had a very good relationship." - US President, Donald Trump

Next Steps

Prime Minister Albanese has returned to Canberra and a reshuffle of his Cabinet is expected, as is customary after most elections. This is especially expected given Labor’s Cabinet remained unchanged for much of its first two years in office.

The increase in Labor MPs from the left faction is expected to result in it having a majority within the Federal caucus for the first time. This is driven by the success of Labor in Queensland with at least six MPs, potentially eight being elected, all but one being from the left. It’s leading to early analysis that any reshuffle will see promotions of MPs in the Labor left faction.

We will know in the coming weeks when Parliament is recalled, this is not yet certain. It gives the Liberal party time to elect a new Leader. The early favourites are Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, Deputy Leader Sussan Ley, Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan or Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie.

The first foreign visit will be of further intrigue, it is a significant signal of a government’s priorities. Following the 2022 Federal Election, Prime Minister Albanese visited Japan for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue talks and then Indonesia. The question is whether this time, seeking an exemption to US tariffs, President Trump is the first priority.

Further Reading

Federal election results 2025: How Peter Dutton, Coalition lost in catastrophic fashion - Peter Dutton was full of bravado at the final question time before the election, but hiding in plain sight was a campaign about to go off the rails.

Labor faction friction: ascendant Left eyes its ministry rights under Albanese - Labor’s Left faction is expected to have a majority of MPs in federal caucus for the first time, raising the power and influence of the once minority grouping despite Anthony Albanese vowing to govern from the centre.

The companies that are winners and losers from Labor’s landslide victory - Winners include healthcare diagnostics, vehicle financiers, and developers. Mortgage insurers, fuel suppliers, and automotive firms may face challenges.

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